Immediate Questions in Search of Long-Term Answers
The days after an election are the best time for takes that will likely age like cottage cheese left in the August sun. Instead, let's try to deal with the known knowns that sandbag Democrats.
Tuesday was Election Day and ended with what many considered to be a stunning defeat1 for Democrats and the Harris Campaign. By Wednesday afternoon, cable news and social media were filled with people knowing without a shadow of a doubt why it happened. At the same time, pundits that spent the afternoon of any given Election Day screaming to “IGNORE THE EXIT POLLS” turned to those very same exit polls to explain what happened.
Anybody that can tell you the exact reason why it happened is trying to push their own narrative2, or is just filling time before the next ad break on a CNN panel (got to justify their 6-figure paycheck for guessing). In the coming weeks and months, we will get a much clearer picture of what happened and why. I’m not joining the league of people throwing opinion darts at the reason board.
Still, with all that being said, there were some signs along the way that speak to very real issues that Democrats can and should begin to address. These are issues that have been apparent for a few election cycles, and Democrats have just been able to skate by without addressing them because they won.
What Can Be Done About Trump’s Ability to Turn Out Low-Propensity Voters?
Two things about this issue should be addressed upfront. First, in theory, Trump won’t ever be on the ballot again. I mean, listen, if he does run for a third term, we’ve got bigger issues to deal with as there is an amendment saying that it is not possible. On the plus side, if the Supreme Court finds a reason to allow him, and they very well might, that means Obama can run too. So, we could get the Obama versus Trump match that might break us out of this wretched timeline.
The second is that Obama was able to do this both in 2008 and 2012. He got “shellacked” in the midterms during 2010 and 2014, but when he was on the ballot, people came out. So, it’s not exactly a Trump phenomenon.
The trade-off is that enough of those midterm voters were turned off by Trump that they seemed to switch to being Democrats. Which is one of the reasons why Democrats have done really well in 2018, 2022, and special elections.
The real magic trick is how can we get some of those low-propensity Obama voters back AND keep the high-propensity voters we got from Trump?
Which leads to the next question…
Democratic Policies Are Generally More Popular Than Democrats
Whether it is reproductive health, legalized marijuana, raising the minimum wage, or healthcare, policies championed by Democrats are more popular3 than ones championed by Republicans.
It’s like if people hated Ronald McDonald so much that they wanted to try to order a Big Mac from Burger King.
How can Democrats become better messengers so they are as popular as their message?
We Have A Great Economy and People Think It is The Great Depression
Yes, inflation has been high. Still, inflation has been high while wages are rising and unemployment is low. Wait. It doesn’t help to go into the metrics. I could go on about the metrics, but the fact that I have to is the problem. The economy is solid, we actually had a soft landing, the recession never happened, and yet people think the exact opposite.
Plus, there are people with real problems that need help. So rather than try to explain it away it’s important to understand what is happening with people.
Why are people struggling and what can be done to address those struggles? What can Democrats do to help voters feel like they understand their struggles?
All The Young Dudes…Plus, The Old Ones.
Men have been falling away from the Democratic Party. Over the last few years, we have been focusing on raising up our girls. That is an undeniably good thing to do. We made a solid choice. What we didn’t do well is keep our eyes on helping our boys.
I can already picture the hyper-online progressives taking issue with this situation, but that illustrates the problem. Boys are feeling like they are being ignored. As a result, they are looking to people like Elon and Trump as role models.
How do we help guide our boys to becoming men that care for themselves, their loved ones, and their community at large?
Getting The Word Out
The media landscape does not exist in the same state that it was a decade ago. Doing 60 Minutes, sitting down with The New York Times, cable news hits, late night shows, local news, and an appearance on SNL doesn’t cut it. You have to do all those things PLUS sit down for podcast interviews, YouTube shows, and more.
Including going into “hostile” territory.
A few years ago, Democrats decided that it was bad to go on places like Fox News. Thankfully, people like Mayor Pete, Senator-elect Elyssa Slotkin, and Governor Newsom did not agree. This line of thinking has led to Democrats abandoning a whole swath of the fractured media landscape as it went beyond Fox News to podcasts like Joe Rogan. Trump was more than happy to take advantage of that abandoned field. Democrats need to take it all back inch by inch. Not only are we missing out on reaching voters, we are also letting Democrats be defined by our opponents.
Also, I think this point from Mark Cuban is important to understand. I would not necessarily expect social media to be the same in 2028 as it is now. Maybe it will be, maybe it will be different. Who knows. Regardless, it will be important to understand how to reach people across whatever platforms. It will also likely require more than just creating an account to post memes.
How can Democrats maximize their media strategy to appear as many places as possible to reach as many people as possible?
Democrats Don’t Care
This is the big problem. Somewhere along the way the perception of Democrats has gone from them being known as the party of the working class, unions, and people that drink domestic beer to cosmopolitan over-educated liberal elites that care more about identity politics. Everything mentioned probably has lead to this mentality.
How do Democrats rebuild their coalition of working people from all walks of life?
The Ground Beneath Our Feet Shifts From Election to Election
Of course, this is not an exhaustive list of questions that Democrats need to answer. There is a lot of work to be done between now and the next election. The electoral landscape changes fast, and the advice people are giving right now might not add up to much very soon.
Speaking of the next election, back in 2004, George W. Bush was re-elected, and Republicans held the majority in both chambers. The conventional thinking of the pundit class was that John Edwards was the Democrat best suited to run in 2008. Two years later, in 2006, Democrats took the majority in both the House and the Senate. Two years after that, on Election Day 2008, America watched Barack Obama deliver a victory speech in Grant Park.
If the historical trend of out parties gaining in midterms and the next general election, Democrats should answer these questions to maximize the potential gains.
Even though polls had this thing as a coin flip election, it was stunning to see how well Trump did.
Hi Bernie.
Not all of these thing are popular, especially in Florida.
Great summary Jake, and I also like what Mark Cuban had to say. I'm a middle aged liberal woman, and suddenly last night YouTube decided that, among my hundreds of historical fashion and linguistics videos, I was very interested in Greg Gutfield's "humor." There is no natural algorithm in the world that would come up with that result.
However, there are a lot of liberal young men. My son and his friends are all liberal and voted for Harris. But they are Deadheads, so they have a culture outside of their phones. They have music for examples of liberal men they can admire and emulate. They go to shows with "friends they've never met before."