Is Trump 2024 Just Clinton 2016?
2024 might be shaping up to be like 2016, just not in the way people think.
Listen, let’s just say this from the jump:
The 2024 Presidential Election is still in the early stages and who knows how this whole thing will shake out before it is done. Also, I’m not making any predictions here. I’m just running through a little thought experiment. Okay, now that I got that out of the way let’s get into it.
As the 2024 Presidential Campaign begins the name “Scott Walker” has been brought up a few times. When it is it’s in reference to the stumbles of the DeSantis campaign and how Mr. “Top Gov” isn’t ready for the national stage. Which, for the record, I fully believe. It’s easy to look like a “fighter” when you are yelling from the podium and only talk to DeSantis friendly media. Anyway, I digress.
For me I’m wondering if the 2024 Presidential Election might be more like the 2016 Presidential Election in that Trump might be freezing out other candidates that might possibly have a shot. He certainly has the vibe of a presumptive nominee, but his support might be really soft when it comes to the general.
This is making me flashback to around 2015 when the presumptive nominee status was on Hillary Clinton. That vibe started in early 2013 when then President Obama sat down for a dual interview with 60 Minutes. For the record there was no dual 60 Minutes interview1 with then Vice President Biden, so you know, a message was being sent.
So as we got closer to the actual primary season there were only two people running against Hillary Clinton for the first open Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in 8 years. Contrast that with the mosh pit of candidates in 2008 and the two night debate extravaganza of the early 2020 Democratic Primary.
Of course, it turns out that Hillary Clinton was pretty vulnerable as a candidate. The evidence of that was pretty apparent when Senator Bernie Sanders ended up putting a pretty strong fight against her. Was this due to the strength of Senator Sanders or the weakness of Hillary Clinton? Honestly, probably a little of both.
Had President Obama not entered the race in 2008 Clinton probably would have been the nominee and probably would have won the Presidential Election. That’s not what happened. Obama and Clinton went at it during that primary and it was pretty tough. I know that there are instances in American political history of people getting another chance at the nomination (Biden, Reagan, HW Bush, and Nixon) but also in the more modern era both McCain and Romney lost the primaries, won the nomination in the next cycle, and then went on to lose the general election.
That’s what happened to Clinton. Had Joe Biden challenged her in 2015 it’s not hard to see a scenario in which he didn’t get into the Sanders/Clinton fight and used the Obama Administration glow to win the election and go on to clobber Trump in 2016.
Now, looking forward I think the same thing could be happening to Trump. He clearly has a hold on the base. How strong is that hold? Nobody really knows because not many people are willing to challenge him. I mean, yes some other people are running but they are taking the fight to him. Even DeSantis is being pretty sheepish about it, which is weird, because he is a self-described “fighter.”
To say that Trump is vulnerable in the general election is an understatement. Nearly 30 years of criticism of Hillary Clinton took a toll on her standing in a general election. Whether you agree with the Clinton criticism or not, Trump has done more to make voters weary of him than they ever were of her. I mean, unlike Hillary Clinton Trump never got the majority of votes for President of the United States.
Where is the GOP Bernie Sanders to make this case to GOP primary voters? Maybe it’s a fool’s errand but maybe there are enough voters that ugh, want Trumpism without Trump. DeSantis could’ve stepped into that role, but again, I don’t think he has it.
As it stands 2024 could be a remix of 2016 with one important reversal, the establishment would want to dump the nominee but the voters are caring him to the nomination.
If you remember one let me know.